THE USDINR
Welcome to after long weekend, We are expecting USDINR to commence Wednesday session between 76.40 – 76.50 levels as the greenback slipped against a basket of currencies, as investors evaluated how much of the Federal Reserve's expected move to hike rates this week and beyond was already priced in.
THE INDIAN WHEAT
India's wheat output looks likely to fall in 2022 after five consecutive years of record harvests, as a sharp, sudden rise in temperatures in mid-March cut crop yields in the world's second-biggest producer of the grain.
The drop could curb Indian exports of the staple. Cashing in on a rally in global wheat prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, India exported a record 7.85 million tonnes in the fiscal year to March - up 275% from the previous year.
EXPECTED FOMC MOVE
On Wednesday, Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and announce plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet when it concludes its two-day meeting.
Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the conclusion of the meeting will be scrutinized for any new indications about whether the central bank will continue to hike rates to battle rising price pressures even if the economy weakens. Fed funds futures traders expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to rise to 2.89% by year-end, from 0.33% now.
THE AUSSIE
The Aussie dollar jumped after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by a surprisingly large 25 basis points to 0.35%, the first hike in over a decade, and flagged more to come as it pulls down the curtain on massive pandemic stimulus.
THE YEN
The Japanese yen held just above 20-year lows against the dollar reached last Thursday, when the Bank of Japan strengthened its commitment to keep interest rates ultra-low by vowing to buy unlimited amounts of bonds daily to defend its yield target.
USDINR TECHNICAL
Day Trend: - BUY ON DIP (Short Term)
Weekly Trend: - HOLD
INTRADAY RANGE – 76.78 (76.60 – 76.41) 76.23
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