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USDINR WEEKLY PROJECTION - 021ST TO 25TH OCT’19

  • Writer: fxmethods
    fxmethods
  • Oct 20, 2019
  • 2 min read

WEEKLY RANGE – 70.24 (70.68 – 71.43 ) 71.88

Conclusion Weekly :-

TREND: - UPSIDE SELL TILL HOLD 71.33 LEVELS.


IMPORT: - Cover short term liabilities on every dip.


EXPORT: - Exporters can active +71.50 for shorter term.



THE GLOBAL CONCERN

  • The Brexit Drama

  • The Trade War

  • The Global Growth Dilemma

  • Trump Impeachment updates

USDINR

FUNDAMENTAL

  • IMF slashes India's FY20 GDP growth forecast by 90 bps to 6.1%

  • Growth in India will be supported by lag effect of monetary policy easing, a reduction in corporate income tax rates, says IMF said in its bi-annual World Economic.

  • Outlook IMF also lowered India's FY21 GDP growth forecast by 20 bps to 7.2%.

TECHNICAL

  • The USD/INR pair stays inside a month-old range despite bouncing off 21-day SMA (71.07).

  • Bullish MACD, sustained trading beyond 70.35 favor buyers.

  • 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (71.60) of July-September upside acts as immediate resistance.

Dollar index

  • Worst weekly decline since June sends DXY down to the 200-day SMA.

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is under heavy bearish pressure as the market prints its worst weekly decline since mid-June 2019.

  • Last Friday, the negative sentiment on the Greenback sent the Index down to the critical 200-day simple moving average.

GBP/USD

  • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson may send his Conservative MPs home and bring forward the second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to Tuesday, October 22. In this scenario, the government will make the special Saturday sitting meaningless.

  • Reporters say that sources in 10 Downing Street would make the move if the amendment pushed by Sir Oliver Letwin is approved by parliament. The amendment requires the PM to seek an extension to Brexit if the full bill fails to pass on Saturday.

  • Traders may sell GBP/USD early on Monday when markets open. GBP/USD has closed the trading week at 1.2973, close to the five-month highs of 1.2989. The pound advanced on the prospects of parliament approving the Brexit agreement. Another delay may send it down amid growing uncertainty.

THANK YOU !!

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