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THURSDAY USDINR & GLOBAL OUTLOOKS: - USDINR FIRM, FED HIKE 50 BPS, OIL UP!!

USDINR

On Thursday, USDINR likely to commence within range of 82.45 – 82.55 levels as dollar lower after first gaining ground when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50% as expected and said it would need to continue to raise rates.


  • Nov WPI inflation 5.85% vs 8.39% in Oct

  • Nov WPI Food index 2.17% vs 6.48% in Oct

  • Economists expect WPI at low single digit in coming months


Russia's flagship Urals crude has been sold at deeper discounts this month following a European ban on Russian oil imports, and dominant buyer India has bought barrels at well below a $60 price cap agreed by the West, four market sources said.


USDINR TECHNICAL

Day Trend: - BUY ON DIP

Weekly Trend: - UPSIDE SELL FOR MIDTERM

INTRADAY RANGE – 82.96 (82.64 – 82.31) 81.99


THE FED

Federal Reserve that raised interest rates by an expected 50 basis points, but its economic projections see higher rates for a longer period.


  • The greenback reversed course and retreated when Fed Chair Jerome Powell took questions. The Fed projected at least an additional 75 basis points of increases in borrowing costs by the end of 2023 as well as a rise in unemployment and a near stalling of economic growth.


  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was too soon to talk about cutting rates as the focus is on making the central bank's policy stance restrictive enough to push inflation down to its 2% goal.


GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK

The strategy of aggressive interest rate increases by major central banks around the world this year has increased worries the global economy could be pushed into a recession and weighed heavily on riskier assets such as equities this year.


THE OIL

The Oil prices rose for a third day in a row as market looked beyond a big weekly build in U.S. crude inventories to focus instead on the shutdown of Canadian pipeline Keystone, which is vital to refiners in the country’s West Coast.



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