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THURSDAY USDINR & GLOBAL OUTLOOK:- FED HIKE RATE, RUPEE STUCK, YIELDS UP, ECB ON FOCUS, OIL RETREAT!

USDINR

On Thursday, USDINR is likely to commence a session between 78.05 – 78.15 levels as Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in a historic move to fight inflation and projected a slowing economy and rising unemployment in the months to come.


THE FED

The rate hike was the biggest made by the U.S. central bank since 1994 and was delivered after recent data showed little progress in its inflation battle.

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that either a 50- or 75-basis-point rate increase at its next policy meeting in July seemed most likely and that the economy is strong enough to handle tighter policy.

  • U.S. central bank officials also flagged a faster path of increases in borrowing costs to come, more closely aligning monetary policy with a rapid shift this week in financial market views of what it will take to bring price pressures under control.

THE YIELDS

In the USA yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries pulled back to 3.32%, down from an 11-year peak of 3.498% struck on Tuesday. The yield on two-year Treasuries also slipped to 3.2096%, well under Tuesday's high of 3.456%, a level last seen in 2007.


THE ECB

The greenback had weakened against the euro earlier in the session on news of a surprise meeting by the European Central Bank, which some traders hoped would address fragmentation risk in the region.

  • The so-called fragmentation risk refers to the worry that the ECB's monetary policy actions may affect the 19 nations that make up the eurozone in differing ways, with some countries logging a significant increase in bond yields disconnected from economic fundamentals.

THE OIL

Overnight, The Oil prices fell more than $3 as markets worried about a fall in demand after the Federal Reserve hiked its interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point.


THE CRYPTO

Bitcoin slipped to a new 18-month low of $20,076.05, before paring losses to trade down about flat at $22,149.15, dragging smaller tokens down with it and deepening a market meltdown sparked by crypto lender Celsius this week freezing customer withdrawals.


USDINR INTRADAY TECHNICAL

Day Trend: - BUY ON DIP (SHORT TERM)

Weekly Trend: - HOLD

INTRADAY RANGE – 78.26 (78.15 – 77.95) 77.89

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