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THURSDAY - RUPEE SEEMS WEAKER & DOLLAR ADVANCE ON FED !!

We expect, Indian currency (Rupee) likely to start with weaker note as greenback advance on U.S. Federal Reserve meeting gave few clues about whether an even more dovish shift in its policy framework is possible in the autumn, disappointing some dollar bears. On Wednesday , It opened higher at 74.70 per dollar versus previous close of 74.76 and traded in the range of 74.6875-74.9450.

  • India is staring at a protracted slowdown as coronavirus cases reach its countryside, with signs of recovery in the rural economy hailed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi "at best a mitigating factor", government officials and analysts said.

  • At least one in four people in India may have been infected with the coronavirus - a much higher number than official government figures suggest, the head of leading private laboratory says.

INTRADAY RANGE - 74.48 ( 74.68 - 75.00 ) 75.25


THE FED MINUTES

A heavily shorted greenback put on its biggest one-day surge since March after the release, hitting 93.159 against a basket of currencies , about 1% above Tuesday's two-year trough. The move wiped out earlier gains made by other majors.

  • Speculation has been rife the Fed will adopt an average inflation target, and seek to push inflation above 2% to make up for years it has run below, as part of a broader policy review.

  • But the minutes were vague on the issue and merely said "a number" of Fed members thought it would be helpful to make a revised statement on its policy strategy at some point, without providing details or timing.

  • The minutes also sounded pretty gloomy about the U.S. economy and skeptical about capping government bond yields as a means of encouraging recovery and investment - leading to a modest sell off in Treasuries.

  • For the Fed, the focus now shifts to whether more will be revealed at the Aug. 27-28 virtual Jackson Hole symposium or at September's meeting.

MAJOR FX INTRADAY RANGE

EUR/USD - UPSIDE SELL

  • (1.1903 - 1.1779)

GBP/USD - UPSIDE SELL

  • (1.3191 - 1.3016)

USD/JPY - ANY DIP BUY

  • 107.67 (106.62 - 105.57)

DOLLAR INDEX - BUY ON DIP

  • 94.31 ( 93.39 - 92.47 )

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