On Thursday , Rupee likely to start trading in firm note between 73.80 - 73.90 levels as greenback was down in early Asia, subdued by weak U.S. economic data but with lingering optimism over the development of a COVID-19 vaccine leading investors to riskier assets tied to global commodities and emerging markets.
Yesterday , USDINR movement restricted in tight range between 74.0175 - 73.8725 levels despite heavy selling in equity market after Nifty hitting all time high.
November has marked a spectacular run for Indian stock markets. Benchmark indices climbed to record highs and foreign investors have pumped in breathtaking sums of capital. By Wednesday, foreign funds had bought ₹58,694 crore worth of Indian equities this month. With four trading days still to go, the final figure looks set to scale a higher peak.
INTRADAY RANGE - 73.73 ( 73.85 - 74.07 ) 74.17
GLOBAL OUTLOOKS
Positive data for three vaccine candidates’ efficacies, and signs that a transition to the Joe Biden administration in the U.S., saw a recent turn towards riskier currencies and emerging market assets. Although the dollar’s subsequent fall was rapid enough to open the possibility of a rebound in the short term, some investors warned that a longer-term decline could be possible and are already shifting their positions in anticipation of the COVID-19 outbreak waning in 2021.
A China-led recovery in the global economy and commodities should benefit commodities currencies … the outlook is good, but we are reaching levels where authorities might feel some concern. Other emerging market currencies with good fundamentals should benefit.
The U.S. Dollar Index its lowest level in more than two months. It was also close to its weakest in more than two months against the euro.
The dollar also took a hit after data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S.’s GDP grew 33.1% quarter-on-quarter during the third quarter unchanged from the second quarter.
The data also showed 778,000 jobless claims for the past week, higher than the forecast 730,000 claims and the 748,000 claims submitted during the previous week. There were grim warnings that even more job losses could be on the way, with many states re-imposing restrictive measures to curb the spiking number of COVID-19 cases.
The AUD traded near its highest since September, boosted by improved risk appetite and strong demand in China for Australian commodities exports. Meanwhile, the NZD was trading near its strongest level in over two years.
Investors will monitor the onshore yuan to see if the yuan moves towards the 29-month high seen during the previous week.
The pound was near its strongest level against the dollar since Sep. 2, while holding steady against the euro. Investors await details on the Brexit trade talks between the U.K. and the European Union this week.
U.S. oil rose for a fifth day on Thursday as a surprise drop in crude inventories extended a rally driven by hopes that vaccines would end the coronavirus pandemic and revive fuel demand.
U.S. oil stockpiles fell 754,000 barrels last week, data showed, while analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted a 127,000-barrel rise. Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for WTI, fell 1.7 million barrels.
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