USDINR
On Friday, We are expecting USDINR to commence within the range of 78.15 – 78.25 levels as the dollar subdued as well as a positive equity market move in the early Asian session.
The USD/INR pair is attempting to create a base in a range of 78.00-78.15 after a mild correction from its all-time-highs at 78.3850/3950. Considering the overall bullish structure, the asset is expected to recapture its all-time highs. A hawkish guidance from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on interest rate projections in July monetary policy has underpinned the greenback against the Indian rupee. On the oil front, falling oil prices are expected to provide support to the Indian rupee in the near term.
THE FED
Fed Powell in his testimony dictated that the central bank is ‘strongly committed to bringing price stability, which clearly states that the rate hike extent announced in June could repeat in July too. The Fed has already elevated its interest rates to 1.50-1.75% after announcing the biggest rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) in the past 28 years. Despite that, the inflation rate has not portrayed any pause signals yet.
THE JAPAN
The Japan nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in May from a year earlier, data showed, matching a median market forecast.
The data challenges the Bank of Japan's view that the recent rise in prices is temporary, and does not warrant withdrawing monetary stimulus.
But with wage growth subdued, many analysts expect the BOJ to remain firmly focused on stimulating a sluggish economy rather than fight inflation with interest rate hikes.
USDINR TECHNICAL
Day Trend: - BUY ON DIP (Short Term)
Weekly Trend: - HOLD
INTRADAY RANGE – 78.50 (78.34 – 78.18) 78.02
Comments