The Indian Rupee (INR) continues to face significant pressure against the US Dollar (USD), maintaining its position as one of the weakest currencies in the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, the USDINR pair hovers around the 87.20-87.50 range, still trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating some resilience despite broader market uncertainties.
Factors such as Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows and global geopolitical and economic uncertainties contribute to the continued vulnerability of the INR against the USD. In light of these challenges, the recommended trading stance for the week remains "Buy on Dip," as the currency pair is expected to test support levels between 87.10 and 87.20.
Absent significant intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), resistance for the pair is anticipated between 87.65 and 87.85 levels, where downward pressure may re-emerge. Traders should watch for key price action around these levels, taking cues from both market sentiment and potential central bank developments.
EUR/USD maintains its rebound above the 1.0400 mark early on Monday, supported by favorable market factors. The Euro strengthens as European efforts to foster peace in Ukraine gain momentum, positively impacting sentiment. Additionally, upbeat Chinese PMI data boosts global risk appetite, contributing to a softer US Dollar, which helps sustain the pair's momentum ahead of key upcoming EU inflation data. On the downside, the pair is likely to face support near the 1.0350 level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend. Further support is found at 1.0300-1.0290 (round level and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.0250 (static level).
If EUR/USD stabilizes above the 1.0390-1.0400 range, marked by the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200-period SMA, it may confirm this as a new support level. In this scenario, resistance levels to watch would be 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.0500-1.0510 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement, static level), which could cap upside potential. Traders should monitor price action closely around these key levels for any confirmation of directional movement.
GBP/USD is holding minor bids near the 1.2600 level in the European session on Monday, supported by a retreat in the US Dollar, amid growing risk appetite and optimism surrounding a potential truce in the Ukraine conflict. However, further upside remains limited by concerns over potential US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical developments.
The pair closed below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2640 on Thursday, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart dropped below 50, signaling a loss of bullish momentum. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 1.2560, which aligns with the 100-period SMA, followed by 1.2530 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the recent downtrend) and 1.2500 (round level, static level). On the upside, key resistance levels are at 1.2640 (100-day SMA) and 1.2700-1.2710 (round level, static level).
Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden’s comments on a cautious approach to rate cuts have provided some support to the Pound, helping it maintain its ground. Traders should monitor developments around these key levels, particularly in relation to broader geopolitical and economic factors.
Oil prices rose on Monday, driven by strong manufacturing data from China, the world's largest crude importer, which boosted optimism for fuel demand. Official data showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in February, spurred by rising new orders and production. Investors are closely monitoring China's annual parliamentary meeting, starting March 5, for additional economic support measures.
Despite this positive momentum, uncertainty remains due to the ongoing geopolitical risks surrounding the Ukraine conflict and potential U.S. tariffs, which dampen investor confidence in global economic growth. Last month, both Brent and WTI posted their first monthly declines in three months, as fears of economic slowdown and trade tensions weighed on market sentiment.
The oil market saw a boost in sentiment after European leaders reaffirmed strong support for Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy at a recent summit, even as tensions with U.S. President Trump lingered.
For 2025, analysts are maintaining oil price forecasts with Brent expected to average $74.63 per barrel, balancing the potential impacts of U.S. sanctions with ample supply and a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, according to a Reuters poll.
Meanwhile, political and commercial uncertainty continues in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, where eight international oil companies have refused to resume shipments through Turkey’s Ceyhan port due to unresolved issues regarding commercial agreements and payment guarantees.
The GBP/JPY pair is advancing towards the 189.60 level during North American trading hours on Thursday, driven by a strengthening Pound Sterling (GBP). Investor focus is on the scheduled meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which could influence sentiment around the British currency.
On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to follow a moderate policy-easing path, which is limiting the downside potential for GBP. Market participants have already priced in two interest rate cuts by the BoE this year, following a recent 25 basis point rate reduction to 4.5%.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming despite strong expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates later this year. BoJ hawkish bets have been bolstered by inflation remaining above the 2% target for an extended period, along with growing confidence from BoJ officials about continued wage growth.
As a result, GBP/JPY remains supported by GBP strength, while the JPY continues to face pressure despite the BoJ’s tightening stance.
Kommentarer